What is the Impact of Gaza War after Donald Trump Wins Elections 2024 ?

Donald Trump has officially won the presidency in the 2024 USA presidential election which demonstrated his political return.

The presidency of Donald Trump could change the prospects of several conflicts in the present world, including the Israeli-Palestinian War in Gaza. In the first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump’s foreign policy was robust in defending Israel, aggressive in the Middle Eastern continent, and a generalized policy of nationalism for the United States of America. Lately, Trump’s attitude to these hot spots of the global conflict would continue the same policy in case this candidate is elected in 2024 with a striking perspective of US support of Israel and its operations against such Palestinian movements as Hamas.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Legacy: Pro-Israel, Tough on Iran

In his first days in office Trump undertook several actions seen as boosting support for Israel and marginalizing the Palestinian leadership in the peace process. Of course, among the most blatant of Trump’s actions was the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in December 2017, contrary to the U.S. policy that put into effect numerous international instructions. He also engineered the Abraham Accords that resulted in the diplomatic recognition of Israel by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

The continual support of Trump on the anti-Iran line headed by him directly targeted the resolution of the issue connected with the Iranian influence in the region through the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and the subsequent launch of the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign. This was most apparent in the Israeli-Palestine conflict because Iran has supported Hamas as well as other militant organizations in Gaza. During Trump’s presidency, the U.S. aimed at escalating tensions with Iran and its allies and more deeply integrating Israel into the circle of Arab countries many of whom shared similar sentiments about Iran.

Donald Trump’s policies are likely to be maintained if he were to have another term in office. Some of the most critical objectives for Israel’s security have to do with Gaza and Hamas, and those goals would remain in focus. It may also help sustain Washington’s military and diplomatic backing for Israel and an unequivocal opposition to Hamas which the US State Department recognizes as a terrorist organization. However, the U.S. might even reduce its diplomatic interactions with the Palestinian leaders weakening the possibility of achieving a two-state agreement or any kind of support for the Palestinian people’s aspirations.

Possible Effects on the Situation in the Gaza Strip

There has been escalated violence between Israel and Hamas in the last couple of months with Gazans paying the highest price through loss of lives and property. Were Trump to successfully seek another term in the presidency, his administration’s policy is almost certainly to insist on Israel’s right to respond with force to Hamas’ rocket attacks and military incursions. Trump has previously said in no uncertain terms he would support any military actions by Israel that target Hamas, regardless of the backlash.

This position would have several implications for the ongoing war:

1. Military Support for Israel :

A Trump presidency will probably maintain the support given to the IDF by providing them with technologies of warfare and spying on Hamas for more efficient operations. The U.S. could also maintain the policy of casting a ‘nay’ vote on any United Nations Security Council resolution that seeks to order a ceasefire or a stop to Israeli operations in Gaza.

2. Limited Diplomatic Pressure:

This paper argues that Trump’s policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can better be described as a policy of power rather than a policy of diplomacy on behalf of the United States of America. His administration can force Palestinian leadership to acquiesce to a peace plan that is biased towards the security requirements of the state of Israel, and possibly ignore Palestinian demand for statehood. In a phase of high hostility, this may translate to very limited or no interaction whatsoever with Hamas and/or other Palestinian stakeholders who might consider this approach as a solidifying of their isolation.

3. Regional Alliances :

For Palestinian leaders and factions Trump’s stance can only create additional distances, on the other hand for Israeli and some Arab states such a position can deepen the cooperation. The recent signing of the Abraham Accords may create a precedent for other Arab states to publicly support or at the very least not condemn Israeli operations in Gaza. But doing this could also mean escalating tensions with countries such as Turkey, Qatar and Iran who have shown support for Hamas and other Palestinian factions.

4. Humanitarian Concerns:

Trump’s policies towards Gaza and the PA could worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which has been supported by his decisions to stop providing assistance that would otherwise go to the PA. Opponents contend they increase the pain inflicted on Palestinians and harm the chances of a lasting peace. Such tactics may persist in a second term and may restrict possible steps towards calming down and keeping the divisions on the issue on the international level.

The U.S. Role in Peace Efforts: Is there a Possibility of a Stopping of the Armed Conflict?

Trump’s strong stance against Hamas and his support of Israel may lessen the opportunities for negotiation in the second term but a change of policy or a new opportunity may be opened. For instance, if the human suffering in Gaza intensifies, or if there is increased pressure on the U.S. and other international actors in the region to mediate, then it is not improbable to imagine the U.S. engaging in backstage diplomacy

The future presidency of Donald Trump could change the prospects of several conflicts in the present world, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the war in Gaza. In the first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump’s foreign policy was robust in defending Israel, aggressive in the Middle Eastern continent, and a generalized policy of nationalism for the United States of America. Lately, Trump’s attitude to these hot spots of the global conflict would continue the same policy in case this candidate is elected in 2024 with a striking perspective of U.S. support of Israel and its operations against such Palestinian movements as Hamas.

Nonetheless, any CHESS peace process that might be envisaged would be fraught with great risks, especially because both Israel and Hamas are so firmly dug in at present. The failure of Hamas to accept Israel’s sovereign state’s legitimacy and Israel’s insistence that the Palestinian party, Hamas, must be denied weapons and its leadership be made to face terrorism charges would remain outstanding issues of concern.